White House Scenarios

The future of President Donald Trump and his administration is more uncertain than any in modern history. Liberals and the members of the Resistance believe they smell political blood and are waiting to settle scores. But  pushing the 45th President off his White House pedestal is no easy task. Let me tell you why.

Articles of impeachment for alleged conflict of interest, ties to Russia, legal suits for sexual harassment, nepotism ( need I go on) must begin with the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. This is highly unlikely as the GOP doesn’t want a long drawn-out public hearing and more importantly consider Trump a strange but supportive partner in their legislation agenda.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment gives the senior members of the Cabinet the power to remove the President if he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” This would be a political coup that is certain to cause dangerous instability in the country and in the centers of power. Even if the President would act in a way that was viewed as erratic and unstable, those around him would find a way to  work around him or ignore him rather than go down in history as turning the U.S. into a banana republic.

Members of the Resistance are looking to the mid-term elections in 2018 as critical to anti-Trumpism. This strategy may be a fools journey. It is certainly possible to flip the Senate and House but highly unlikely. In the Senate Democrats must fight for 23 seats, while the Republicans only 8; in the House the way representative districts are politicized in favor of the GOP, a major transformation would be very difficult. Now the liberals could hit the ground running and try to regain the white working class and the rural folks but such an effort is long term not a two year project.

What is more likely to happen is that the Trump administration gets so dysfunctional that senior members of the GOP and key cabinet members quietly whisper in the President’s ear that he needs to remove the nut jobs, nitwits, liars and incompetents and replace them with responsible bureaucrats who know what they are doing. The conservative agenda would remain in place but would be advanced by people who don’t embarrass the United States.

In this scenario, Trump stays in place, continues to tweet at 3 in the morning, maintains his pettiness, and deepens his ego-trip. He’ll continue to make stupid comments and probably put this country close to harms way, but the real adult staff members will smooth things over. And no he won’t run in 2020; since his approval rate will be in the Nixon-Watergate range.

Now because these are crazy times in the White House anything can happen. VP Pence could become President Pence, the Democrats could take over and end Trumpism, and the Resistance could expand exponentially to the point that the President resigns, or we become an authoritarian dictatorship. Whatever happens these are times that try men’s and women’s souls.

 

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